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OVERTURN OF ROE VS. WADE INCREASES LIKELYHOOD TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC, BUT STUDENT DEBT RELIEF HAS LITTLE NET EFFECT ON DEMOCRATS’ OUTLOOK

MOST AMERICANS WANT A NEUTRAL SPECIAL MASTER AFTER DOJ’S TRUMP RAID AND THEY OPPOSE BIDEN CALLING MAGA REPUBLICANS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT TO THE COUNTRY

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass. – Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the September Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll.

President Joe Biden’s approval rating remains underwater at 41% and inflation is still the biggest concern for voters, over half of whom say the Inflation Reduction Act is more likely to increase rather than decrease inflation. But the midterms are competitive, with the Congressional ballot split at 51% Democrat, 49% Republican.

Results also show the FBI’s raid of Donald Trump’s residence has not hurt the standing of the former president, whom voters would still pick in a presidential election over Joe Biden if the 2024 election were held today,. Americans are evenly split on whether the raid was politically motivated, but a clear majority, 58%, think appointing a special master to review the documents taken by the Department of Justice is reasonable.

Other topics surveyed in this month’s poll include voter views on Biden’s Philadelphia speech and his criticism of MAGA Republicans, which is seen as divisive; the president’s student debt cancellation which has received a lukewarm reception ahead of the midterms; and voters’ call for a special prosecutor to investigate the Hunter Biden laptop story. Download key results here.

“The dynamics for a Republican surge are here but the Democrats have held the dam as the midterms remain a dead heat,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “The Democrats’ most recent moves may have killed their momentum, though, as most Americans disapproved of Biden’s speech calling MAGA Republicans a threat to the country. His executive order canceling student debt has not attracted new voters, either. Americans want less politicization, not more.”

DEMOCRATS HOLD THE DAM AS INFLATION REMAINS TOP CONCERN

• Biden’s approval has ticked up slightly to 41% as voter sentiment on his administration’s handling of inflation and unemployment improve.
• The generic Congressional ballot remains tight, 51-49 in favor of the Democrats.
• Inflation remains the biggest concern for both Democrats and Republicans, followed by abortion rights for Democrats and immigration for Republicans.
• The Inflation Reduction Act faces skepticism: 53% of voters believe it will increase inflation.

DOJ RAID SPLITS THE COUNTRY WITHOUT HURTING TRUMP

• After the DOJ raided Mar-a-Lago, Trump is still the 2024 favorite: 6 in 10 GOP voters would pick Trump if the Republican presidential primary were held today. Trump would win the presidential election against Biden or Kamala Harris if it were held today.
• The raid is dividing Americans: Voters are evenly split on whether the Mar-a-Lago search was required by DOJ protocols or a politically motivated use of force, and whether the DOJ took more documents than the warrant allowed.
• Americans want the DOJ to use other methods: 60% think that if the DOJ wanted Trump’s documents, it should have asked a judge to order it through open court rather than use a search warrant to seize them. 58% think the appointment of a special master to assess what the DOJ took is reasonable.

BIDEN’s SPEECH ON MAGA REPUBLICANS IS UNPOPULAR AS AMERICANS WORRY ABOUT DIVIDING THE COUNTRY

• Biden’s September 1 speech in Philadelphia, in which he called Trump and MAGA Republicans a threat to the country, is viewed as divisive: 56% of voters, including 62% of Independents, opposed it.
• But Biden’s new rhetoric may motivate the base: 73% of Democrats think it is not a gross exaggeration to say that there are tens of millions of dangerous MAGA Republicans.
• Most Americans want Biden to be a unifying figure: 60% say a speech such as his September Philadelphia address divides and holds back the country, and 55% think Biden should be unifying the country instead.
• More Americans are concerned about the socialist left rather than MAGA Republicans gaining power, 55-45.

AMERICANS WANT TO INVESTIGATE THE HUNTER BIDEN LAPTOP STORY

• The Hunter Biden laptop story is not going away: 59% of Americans think the laptop story is genuine, not Russian disinformation. 63% of voters think the FBI helped suppress the story by telling tech companies it could be Russian disinformation.
• Americans are suspicious of the investigation process: 55% think the DOJ and FBI are slow-walking the Hunter Biden investigation to protect President Biden.
• 63% of voters think the DOJ should appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the Biden laptop.

BIDEN’S STUDENT LOAN RELIEF DOES NOT AFFECT MANY AMERICANS OR MAKE THEM WANT TO VOTE DEMOCRATIC

Americans are evenly split on Biden’s cancellation of up to $20,000 of debt for couples making up to $250,000.

• Only 17% of Americans say they will be personally helped by the program.
• Voters are skeptical of Biden’s method: 56% think it was wrong of Biden to act without Congress, and 52% think his executive order will ultimately be deemed unconstitutional.
• Debt relief is having little net effect on voters’ likelihood to vote Democratic: 35% say it will make them more likely to vote blue, but 37% say it will make them less likely.

The September Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from September 7-8, 2022, among 1,854 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. ​ Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms.

About The Harris Poll

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics.  Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

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The Society of Presidential Pollsters Founder Will Discuss “American Government in the 21^st Century” Annual Poll Results

WASHINGTON D.C. – Sept. 7, 2022 – Stagwell (STGW) Chairman and CEO Mark Penn will be a featured speaker at The George Washington (GW) University’s “Reinvigorating Democracy” event next Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2022. The GW Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM) Society of Presidential Pollsters will reveal the results of the latest “American Government in the 21st Century” annual survey, that takes the pulse of the American people on a wide range of issues related to how elected officials and public institutions are serving them.

As the society’s founder, Penn will discuss his analysis in conversation with GSPM Founding Dean Christopher Arterton, followed by a question-and-answer session. The panel is part of the GSPM’s “Reinvigorating Democracy” one-day event on the future of politics from practitioners on the Hill.

The panel will take place 12:30-1:40 p.m. at the Milken Institute School of Public Health. Interested attendees can register here.

To hear more on the latest in political insights, please visit the “Harvard Harris Poll Debrief with Mark Penn and Bob Cusack” podcast, in which Penn and The Hill Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack discuss the latest Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll (Harvard’s Center for American Political Studies and Harris Insights and Analytics), released monthly.

About Stagwell

Stagwell is the challenger network built to transform marketing. We deliver scaled creative performance for the world’s most ambitious brands, connecting culture-moving creativity with leading-edge technology to harmonize the art and science of marketing. Led by entrepreneurs, our 13,000+ specialists in 34+ countries are unified under a single purpose: to drive effectiveness and improve business results for their clients. Join us at www.stagwellglobal.com. 

 Media Contact:
Sarah Arvizo
pr@stagwellglobal.com

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Assembly Political Media Practice

CONTACT

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Via the Assembly Political Dispatcher. Sign up to receive weekly insights here.

Knowing dollars in market is crucial, but what about other important factors? How can we really tell just how fiery a market is, and how much competition advertisers are up against? That’s where AMII comes in.

The below map shows the scale of Assenbly’s AMII values system – tracking 200+ DMAs to uncover key local market insights and implications for determining which DMAs to place spots and how best to distribute them among markets

What’s our AMII Methodology?

The AMII is a 1-10 scale of how crowded we project that a given market will be during the 2022 election cycle. How do we classify “crowded”? We look at multiple factors, including the size of the DMA, the number of races, how stiff the competition is among the races in that DMA, expected outside or issue group involvement, spillover into competitive districts/states, and geographic location of the market within an already competitive state. So, think of 10 as the most crowded, hottest DMA, and those closer to 1 as cooler markets. 

Check out our political spending heat map, layered with AMII values for 15 DMAs, ranging from this election season’s hottest markets to the biggest city metros.

WHAT’S THE CHATTER?  

Connections & Conversations

What are the most talked about issues in the news? Below is a visualization that shows the top headlines over the past two weeks from the biggest political news handles such as POLITICO, MSNBC, The Hill, and more. Headlines were analyzed and grouped to show connection points between topics taking place across America. 

What This Means

Judging by the size of the conversation (9.2%), women’s rights is still a big part of the landscape as we begin to see the impact of new regulations in a post-Roe world. Brands need to recognize that many consumers have heightened anxiety about healthcare, so an empathetic tone will go a long way.  

Both sides are working to reduce inflation (9.1%) in different ways, from student debt relief and energy conservation to lowering shipping and trucking regulations. Brands can enter the conversation by being transparent around their own supply chain and the ways they’re working towards easing inflation.

In the weeks before the search, Trump (11%) was fading from the news cycle. The investigation now puts him back in the spotlight as new information comes to light. As the divisive conversation continues, brands will need to understand how to navigate these topics while finding middle ground in order to resonate with a diverse audience set.

RATINGS ROUNDUP 

National News Trends

What We Know

Broadcast news has seen a decline in national ratings year-over-year. Of the big 3 cable news networks, CNN and MSNBC are seeing double-digit declines, while Fox News has shown a 10% increase in its ratings. Some of this erosion can be attributed to a shift in news viewership to streaming platforms.  

What This Means

In this polarizing political climate, viewership trends tend to follow public interest, whether positive or negative.  This midterm election year, people are turning to cable news, not only for self-education about issues, but also to help reinforce ideals they already hold about the direction of the country.  

NEWS OF THE WEEK

NPR: Maxwell Frost, one of the first Gen Z candidates for Congress, has won his primary

What We Know

Frost’s campaign is based on key progressive issues, including Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, student debt cancellation, and an end to gun violence. Mr. Frost’s win illustrates the political appeal of a young candidate who can tap into the urgency of the political moment.

What This Means

Maxwell Frost’s win brings light to an important theme: interest in politics is increasing among younger audiences. Technology has given Gen Z a louder voice than ever and a platform for their activism. And the industry has taken note – midterm political spending has shifted into streaming services and emerging social platforms like TikTok in order to reach this audience. It will be more important than ever to monitor the conversation amongst younger audiences and to keep them front of mind this election season.

CONTACT

Mark Penn

FEATURING

BUT GOP HAS NOT CLOSED THE DEAL WITH VOTERS FOR 2022 MIDTERMS

INFLATION AND AFFORDABILITY IS THE TOP ISSUE ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM

ROE V. WADE IS ONLY SLIGHTLY IMPACTING DEMOCRATIC OUTLOOK IN MIDTERMS

NEW YORK, Aug. 3, 2022 — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the July Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll, a Stagwell research and insights firm.

Four in ten voters report feeling pessimistic about their lives over the next year in the face of historic inflation levels and data suggest we are looking at another hyper-partisan election cycle. The topics surveyed in this month’s poll include the political impact of Roe vs. Wade, voter views on the Biden administration energy policy, the January 6 hearings, and the 2024 presidential election. Download key results here.

“Democrats can still hold onto hope ahead of the midterms, with the race a dead heat despite President Biden’s approval rating being at a historic low and nearly half of Americans believing the country is currently in a recession,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll. “Looking to 2024, most voters are still open to a moderate independent candidate, but among Republicans, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is solidifying his status as the second choice. In these divided times, voters themselves seem to be holding contradictory opinions on issues such as energy policy and Trump’s legal culpability in the January 6 riots.”

• Biden’s approval remains at a historic low of 38%.
• 84% think the economy is either in recession or will be within the next year.
• Perceptions on inflation seem to have peaked slightly: 33% of voters, up from 28% last month, think the U.S. economy is strong today, and inflation – while still the number one issue facing the country – fell 6 points.
• Approval rating of the Republican Party neared 50 percent for the first time since February 2022 in our poll – now 5 points higher than the Democratic party approval rating.

• The generic Congressional ballot is split 50-50, with Democrats and Republicans voting along party lines; Independents lean with Republicans 54-46
• Inflation and affordability is overwhelmingly the biggest concerns for both Democrats and Republicans, followed by Abortion Rights for Democrats and Immigration for Republicans
• Democrats have made little progress mobilizing on abortion so far: 39% of voters, up from 36% in June, say the Supreme Court’s decision has made them more likely to vote for a Democrat in the midterms

• Voters are tired of hyper-partisanship: Strong majorities of over 6 in 10 voters don’t want either Joe Biden on Donald Trump to run in 2024
• A majority open to considering a “moderate independent candidate” in case the choice is between Trump or Biden.

• 59% of voters oppose the Biden administration’s energy and gas policies, and 63% think they are responsible for most of the increase in gas prices
• 45% think climate change is an immediate threat, including 66% of Democrats and 41% of independents. Voters want the administration to emphasize lower prices and energy independence over climate change.
• Climate change is an immediate threat to 45% of voters, including 66% of Democrats and 41% of independents
• Voters are wary of the climate issue being politicized: Only four in ten say that an emergency climate declaration by the Biden administration would be legitimate

• Voters are split on how and whether Trump should be held responsible: 53% of voters think Trump should face criminal indictment for his actions on January 6, but 54% think he should be allowed to run for president again.
• Nevertheless, 69% think it is time to unite the country and heal.
• Voters are split 50-50 on whether Congress should be involved in certifying presidential elections instead of the courts. Still, clear majorities believe the role of the Vice President and state governors should be purely ceremonial.

• 48% of voters think Taiwan is neutral towards the U.S., 36% think it is an ally, and 16% think it is an enemy
• 52% of voters support senior U.S. government officials visiting Taiwan even if China has signaled it might act military to prevent them from doing so—surprisingly, 59% of Democrats support it, over 10 points higher than Republicans and Independents.

The July Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from July 27-28, 2022, among 1,885 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

Stagwell is the challenger network built to transform marketing. We deliver scaled creative performance for the world’s most ambitious brands, connecting culture-moving creativity with leading-edge technology to harmonize the art and science of marketing. Led by entrepreneurs, our 12,000+ specialists in 34+ countries are unified under a single purpose: to drive effectiveness and improve business results for their clients. Join us at www.stagwellglobal.com.

Media contact:
Beth Sidhu
pr@stagwellglobal.com 

SOURCE Stagwell Inc.