June Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll Summary
It is my pleasure to bring you the findings our latest Harvard CAPS / Harris poll just before the long weekend. The survey was fielded among 1,308 registered voters earlier this week between June 28-29, 2022. (Link to the full poll here).
The country’s mood continues to worsen – “wrong track” metrics about the direction of the country (70% say we are on the wrong track) and the direction of the economy (71% wrong track) are the worst they have ever been in our poll, surpassing even the onset of the pandemic. Today 64% of voters indicate that their financial situation is getting worse, a figure almost double from the initial stage of the pandemic.
Biden’s re-election chances sink lower – his approval in June is at 38%, tied for the lowest it has ever been. Only 40% of voters today think Biden is mentally fit to serve as president (down from 48% one month ago), and 64% say he’s showing he is too old. Only a third of the Democratic base would support him in a presidential primary (though he leads the pack, this is still a very low figure of support for an incumbent).
Importantly, voters are asking for change — 71% of all voters do not want Biden to run for reelection and the plurality say it’s because he is a bad president. Similarly , 61% do not want Trump to run in 2024 either and they are largely divided as to why, with a third each saying Trump is erratic, he will divide America, and he’s responsible for Jan 6th. This observed aversion to the former and current president means a major opening for an independent presidential ticket – 60% would consider voting for a moderate independent candidate for president if Biden and Trump both ran.
Voters remain divided on whether Trump incited or encouraged the Jan 6th riots, but are leaning slightly towards saying ‘Yes’. Note that this is a highly partisan issue with deep partisan breaks. Further, while voters believe the commission hearings are harming Trump politically, a small majority remain concerned that the commission’s work is biased, that it is having the effect of dividing Americans further, and that it will be used to silence voices on the right.
Finally on SCOTUS’s decision to repeal Roe vs. Wade – 55% oppose the decision; 69% believe SCOTUS’ decision has created turmoil; however, a plurality believe abortion standards should be set by state legislatures (44%) compared to a Congressional vote (31%) or SCOTUS itself (25%). And despite the decision, 63% of voters view the court as legitimate and 59% believe it is wrong for democrats to call the court illegitimate.
Lastly, it looks like abortion may not have a major impact on midterm elections – voters are just as likely to vote Dem as they are GOP given the split nature of this issue.
These and more are covered in our monthly canvas of what America’s thinking on the hot issues of the day. As always feel free to reach out with questions and follow my podcast about the poll at www.MARKPENNPOLLS.com (full episode) or any of the following channels: @iHeartRadio, @ApplePodcasts, @Spotify, @Stitcher,@Google, @SoundCloud, @RadioPublic, @Tunein, @Castbox_fm, @Overcast, @Castro.
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