FEBRUARY HARVARD CAPS / HARRIS POLL: BIDEN DOESN'T RECEIVE A BUMP FROM THE STATE OF THE UNION

MAJORITY OF VOTERS THINK BIDEN ACTED TOO SLOWLY ON CHINESE SPY BALLOON 69% OF VOTERS NOW THINK CHINA IS PLANNING TO INVADE TAIWAN WITHIN 3 YEARS

NEW YORK and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Feb. 17, 2023 /PRNewswire/ — Stagwell (NASDAQ: STGW) today released the results of the February Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll, a monthly collaboration between the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard (CAPS) and the Harris Poll and HarrisX.

President Biden’s approval rating remains at 42% after a dramatic State of the Union that voters wanted to focus more on the economy. A majority of Americans want more answers on the Chinese surveillance balloon and are increasingly concerned about Chinese spying and a potential invasion of Taiwan. Download key results from the poll here.

“President Biden didn’t get a bump from the State of the Union because it was designed to keep moderate Democrats in the fold, not reach outside the base,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard-CAPS Harris Poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO. “China and Taiwan may become the biggest foreign policy issue in the next election cycle as Americans put a premium on a president who can deter growing Chinese aggression. The presidential race is still in early stages but we already see the theme will be the old guard fighting to keep their power against a new guard wondering if it’s their time.”

BIDEN HASN’T RECEIVED A BUMP FROM THE STATE OF THE UNION

• Biden’s State of the Union was received in a partisan manner: voters were split 50-50 on whether they found the speech favorable, and his approval rating remains at 42%.
• 35% of voters said they did not watch any of the speech.
• Voters said they wanted Biden to focus his speech more on inflation, the economy, and immigration.
• On Biden’s back-and-forth with Republicans on entitlements: 56% of voters believe Republican members of Congress are trying to cut Social Security and Medicare.

VOTERS CONTINUE TO WANT SPENDING CURBS INCLUDING SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM

• Most voters continue to side with the Republicans on the looming debt ceiling fight: 62% want Congress to raise the limit only with spending constraints, and 63% think Democrats should negotiate.
• Voters acknowledge Medicare and Social Security can’t continue without change: 57% think Medicare and Social Security do need reforms to remain solvent.   

NIKKI HALEY GETS SOME MOMENTUM IN AN OPEN REPUBLICAN FIELD

• Nikki Haley rises after her presidential campaign announcement although most voters are still not familiar with her: among GOP voters she rose to third place in a potential GOP primary that does not feature Trump.
• Ron DeSantis is slipping slightly: among GOP voters he dropped 10 points in a potential GOP primary without Trump although he is still the frontrunner.
• The GOP field is wide open: only 54% of Republican and Independent voters think Trump will win the GOP primary if he runs.

AMERICANS ARE CHINA HAWKS ON SURVEILLANCE BALLOON AND ARE WORRIED ABOUT TAIWAN

• The shot-down surveillance balloon is a major concern to Americans: 66% of voters think it represented a challenge to US sovereignty by China.
• Americans thought Biden did too little in response: 63% think the Biden administration acted too slowly in shooting down the balloon.
•  Americans also want more answers on the balloon and subsequent shot-down aerial objects: 82% support Congress investigating, and 75% want Biden to disclose what the administration knows.
• Americans are concerned about China’s aggression in other areas: 69% of voters think China is planning to invade Taiwan in the next 3 years.

AMERICANS DOUBT BIDEN ON FOREIGN POLICY ACROSS THE WORLD  

• Biden’s foreign policy approval is low: 40% of voters think Biden has not done a good job on foreign policy including Afghanistan, Ukraine, and China – compared to 27% who think he has done a good job.
• 56% of voters think Biden is not up to handling challenges from China, Russia, and Iran.

AMERICANS STILL SUPPORT BIG TECH BUT ARE SUSPICIOUS OF TIKTOK

• 60-70% of voters do not want Big Tech companies (Google, Facebook, Amazon, or Microsoft) to be broken up.
• TikTok faces more suspicion: 59% of voters think TikTok spies on its US users.
• Voters are split on a full TikTok ban: 46% think TikTok should be allowed to operate in the US only if the app undergoes regular security reviews of its code base; 42% support a total ban.
• The FTC is seen as partisan: 48% of voters think it acts as a Democratic agency.  

The February Harvard CAPS / Harris Poll survey was conducted online within the United States from February 15-16, 2023, among 1,838 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX. Follow the Harvard CAPS Harris Poll podcast at https://www.markpennpolls.com/ or on iHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast platforms. 

About The Harris Poll

The Harris Poll is a global consulting and market research firm that strives to reveal the authentic values of modern society to inspire leaders to create a better tomorrow. It works with clients in three primary areas: building twenty-first-century corporate reputation, crafting brand strategy and performance tracking, and earning organic media through public relations research. One of the longest-running surveys in the U.S., The Harris Poll has tracked public opinion, motivations, and social sentiment since 1963, and is now part of Stagwell, the challenger holding company built to transform marketing.

About the Harvard Center for American Political Studies
The Center for American Political Studies (CAPS) is committed to and fosters the interdisciplinary study of U.S. politics. Governed by a group of political scientists, sociologists, historians, and economists within the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Harvard University, CAPS drives discussion, research, public outreach, and pedagogy about all aspects of U.S. politics. CAPS encourages cutting-edge research using a variety of methodologies, including historical analysis, social surveys, and formal mathematical modeling, and it often cooperates with other Harvard centers to support research training and encourage cross-national research about the United States in comparative and global contexts. More information at https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/.

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